![]() ![]() This lack of trust could be partly rectified by having polling organizations come from across the political spectrum. It could be that some Republicans didn’t trust the polling institutions, as Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight told me. This could point to a “shy Republican” phenomenon, which might have two causes. The report noted that polls not only overestimated Biden’s support the polls also overestimated Democratic support in the Senate. Similarly, Republicans who responded might have been less favorable to Trump. It might be that Democrats who responded to polls were more favorable to Biden than those who didn’t.Pollsters might not have overweighted a pro-Trump response enough compared to a pro-Biden response, giving Biden a higher apparent lead. Trump decried many polls as fake, likely discouraging his supporters from responding.The writers of the report suggested some possible reasons why polls were so off that year. For example, a CNN poll predicted that Joe Biden would lead Donald Trump by 12 percentage points. According to a report by the American Association for Public Opinion Research entitled 2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls, 2020 polls were off by the largest magnitude in decades at both the federal and state levels. After the noisy 2020 election season in the United States, journalists wrote extensively about the inaccuracy of preelection polls.
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